Insomniactive

Via Forrest Wilder at the Texas Observer, this rather eye-popping summary of the much-awaited survey:

The full results of a much-discussed survey by the Republican firm Hill Research showing the weakening GOP brand in Texas have been released. The details are stunning. Take for example this slide:

Got that? In a head-to-head matchup today between a generic Democratic candidate for governor and a generic Republican, the Democrat starts out with a 13 percent advantage. In a state rep race, the Democratic advantage is 14 percent.

What is it about the Texas GOP that voters don’t like?

Voters think the Republicans are arrogant, racist, corrupt and angry. While they think Democrats are smart, innovative, reformers, fair, thoughtful and - perhaps most important - the party of the future. As Hill Research notes, “Long-term, this is simply untenable.”

What’s going on out there to produce such profound distaste with the Texas GOP? After all, this is the party that currently controls all statewide elective offices and both chambers of the Texas Legislature.

Even Texas voters are sick of Bush. That much is evident. But Republicans in time can overcome the Bush problem. More worrisome for the GOP in this state is that half of the voters surveyed cited a lack of appeal to young people and Hispanics, the most important demographic groups of the future.

Based on their survey results, Hill slices the voting population into five distinct segments: Enduring Republicans (21%), Emerging Republicans (10%), Critical Middle (25%), Emerging Democrats (17%), and Enduring Democrats (27%). It is the Critical Middle - those “not in either camp solidly - that Republicans must win to hold onto power. This group is heavily male, under age 50, self-described moderate and/or independent, focused on fiscal rather than social issues.

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for GOP campaigns to succeed they must wrap up 80 percent of the Critical Middle. “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.” The Texas Republican Party, controlled in large part by religious conservatives, is going to have to make some serious changes to accommodate these folks. This group could not give a hoot about immigration (only 15% said it was the most important issue vs. 38% of the Enduring GOP). The Critical Middle also doesn’t care much for “traditional values” (8% said it was the most important vs. 16% of the Enduring GOP and 19% of the Emerging GOP). What they do rate as important are cutting property taxes (17% said it was the most important vs. 15% of the Enduring GOP), child healthcare (19% vs. 2%), and investing in education (20% vs. 9%).

Because this survey is meant as a wake-up call to complacent GOPers, Hill has some recommendations for strategists and politicians on how to reach that Critical Middle.

The danger, of course, in appealing to the Critical Middle is pissing off the Loony Right, err… Enduring GOP. But, Hill emphasizes, not acknowledging and adapting to political realities will result in a Colorado-style meltdown for the party.

The Hill survey shows that Democrats have a golden opportunity to make major gains in Texas. But Texas Democrats - as was said of Yasser Arafat - have been known to never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

I often (usually) auto-delete spam from politicians (e.g. “dear John D Thornton, we’re so grateful for your generous help as we take to the powers of evil our vigorous fight to save the Quicky Mart here in Snoggsville”).

But I almost always read Kirk Watson’s stuff, which I get the feeling he actually writes. This week, a pretty crisp-if bleak-summary of the state of play in Texas government and the need to throw the bums out:

A GOVERNMENT THAT WORKS

At some point, a tragedy is more than an isolated mishap.

With this week’s stunning report of negligence and neglect leading up to the fire at the Governor’s Mansion, the time has passed to ask serious questions about competence in running state government.

To start, let’s reject the notion that this was an isolated, unpreventable act. Let’s not allow claims that the Texas Department of Public Safety – and, more than that, the leadership of the State of Texas – is nothing more than a victim.

No, for once, let’s look at things more broadly. Here’s a short, sobering list of only the scandal and incompetence that’s made headlines recently:

- The Texas Youth Commission, the agency charged with rehabilitating young Texans who break the law, is under receivership like some bankrupt Savings & Loan because some state employees, who were supposed to protect these kids, are instead accused of physically and even sexually abusing them. Just this week, we learned in the Dallas Morning News that after more than a year of the strongest reform the leadership could muster, many of these kids are receiving “poor schooling from overwhelmed teachers plagued by badly designed programs.”

- The Texas Department of Transportation – once an agency so effective that we bragged about it to the world – has become a rogue element in state government: “losing” a billion dollars, enraging citizens and legislators regardless of party or constituency, and drawing its own recommendations for receivership.

- The Texas Health and Human Services Commission, which oversees the state’s meager efforts to ensure its citizens stay healthy, turned vital operations over to a private vendor that wasn’t nearly up to handling them. In the process, tens of millions of dollars have been wasted and dedicated state employees are scrambling to pick up the pieces.

It goes on and on. Stroll among the committee rooms during a legislative session, and the conversations weave a dreary tapestry of the failures by Texas’ leaders to protect, serve, and meet the needs of the People of Texas.

At some point, leaders must take responsibility. And if they won’t, the people of Texas have to take a long look at what’s wrong.

We remain the state with the most uninsured, yet the legislative leadership refuses to pursue all available federal dollars for children’s health care.

Our universities can’t keep up with our state’s growth, yet the leadership cuts funding levels, cynically decries tuition increases, and vetoes increases for community college budgets.

Our small businesses fret about huge tax increases and homeowners can’t find their promised property tax relief, yet the leadership can’t find a way to seek out solutions or even basic information in a timely manner.

And there’s the Department of Public Safety, the umbrella over the Texas Rangers and the one-time ideal for Texas law and order.

But now, according to its state reviewers, we have an agency that has a phobia for technology, doesn’t look at all of its own data, and would sooner ship its people across the state than modify its habits to be more effective.

And, according to this week’s report on the Mansion fire, we have an agency that forces good officers to beg for adequate protection of the state’s treasures; that doesn’t check or repair its security equipment; that employs senior officers who won’t even ask for needed resources; and that fails to prepare its people for potential emergencies.

Taken together, it all resembles a fantasy of someone looking to drown the people’s government in a bathtub – or, if you will, burn it to the ground.

But the Mansion fire isn’t only a symbol. It’s a symptom of the self-interested neglect and mismanagement that have come to define those who purport to lead this state. While Texas is blessed with dedicated, hard working, public service-oriented employees, they have been denied the tools and leadership they need.

Texas, and every Texan, deserves better. It’s time to demand a government that works.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/2008-08-01/feature4.php